March has typically been a quiet month for equities trading as mentioned in the Straits Times on 27th Feb. We also know that the March we are heralding is a month of uncertainty after 2 months of strong uptrend. The market is struggling with an effort to make a decision and is swinging up and down every other minute. Yes, this is the March that may unfold - testing, volatile and unproven.
But yet, it is not going to be the most defining month.
The IMF has deferred several key initiatives aimed to bolster the firepower provided by the European Central Bank and European Union members for Greece. And has remained coy about providing concrete agreements to support the work of the EU. Reason is obvious - Greece can agree to the austerity measures and policy reforms but does it have the strengths and support from other members of the EU to pull through? Are their lawmakers serious about making this happen and can and will withstand the backlash from their citizens? Plugging one gaping hole still leaves water leaking from others and a real concerted effort is necessary to ensure the survival and return-to-growth of the EU on a whole. Prospects are looking feasible now with a certain degree of solidarity amongst key EU members but it must hold.
The bickering and negotiations will continue. It must. And until April when the IMF and G-20 meets again will we get a truer picture to where this may lead us.