Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Midas and Tiger Exhibiting Strength with Major Supports

The market has been taking some profit-taking/correction/consolidation/volatility whatever you would like to call it. A few stocks have been catching my eye in this period of change - a refreshing one after an unexpected bullish of 2 months. They are Midas and Tiger. I quite particularly like the way they have tested the supports in this rally and am convinced that they are less risky plays in this supposedly continuing uptrend. At least, in any situation that the market turns, the stocks chosen will not break that easily.

Bullish short term. Midas has just broken out of a symmetric triangle or a pennant or whatever pro-pattern chartists call it. A white candlestick has appeared for the first time in 9 trading days. Volume has increased too. 
But, the price action is not without headwinds. First, it is still tracking below the 20d MA line so expect some resistance to come. Should the breakout and a cross of prices above the 20d MA, a more bullish uptrend is expected. For the conservatives, perhaps it would be better to wait for the cross over the 20d MA at around 0.40.
MACD histogram has been 2 days in green. MACD line is trending up and still in positive territory.
RSI has just crossed over the 50 mark and is highly healthy.

Watch. Tiger has been consolidating its prices for the last 1-2 weeks at around 0.80. Prices were also resisted strongly by the 200d MA line heavily for 4 trading sessions and possibly even til today. It is also heavily support by the 0.80 line so some sort of a triangle of trading boundaries is formed. A very narrow band of trading is occuring so expect a breakout soon.
Volumes have been low suggesting some sort of price consolidation and possible further uptrend in the breakout.
MACD histogram has been in red for the past 5 days. MACD line is trending down slightly but still in positive territory. Expect some sort of further retracement of the MACD.
RSI is slightly downtrending/flat but well above the 50 level.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Forget March, Remember April?

March has typically been a quiet month for equities trading as mentioned in the Straits Times on 27th Feb. We also know that the March we are heralding is a month of uncertainty after 2 months of strong uptrend. The market is struggling with an effort to make a decision and is swinging up and down every other minute. Yes, this is the March that may unfold - testing, volatile and unproven.

But yet, it is not going to be the most defining month.

The IMF has deferred several key initiatives aimed to bolster the firepower provided by the European Central Bank and European Union members for Greece. And has remained coy about providing concrete agreements to support the work of the EU. Reason is obvious - Greece can agree to the austerity measures and policy reforms but does it have the strengths and support from other members of the EU to pull through? Are their lawmakers serious about making this happen and can and will withstand the backlash from their citizens? Plugging one gaping hole still leaves water leaking from others and a real concerted effort is necessary to ensure the survival and return-to-growth of the EU on a whole. Prospects are looking feasible now with a certain degree of solidarity amongst key EU members but it must hold.

The bickering and negotiations will continue. It must. And until April when the IMF and G-20 meets again will we get a truer picture to where this may lead us.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Confidence or Over-Confidence

Perhaps I had been a little too cautious to call on time to this rally last week when some technical indicators began showing some retreat being on the cards. Of course, I have always believed in trading with the trend and in an uptrend that hasn't been broken, my view of this uptrend is still in tact. But what I cannot stomach into current trades are the increased volatility and hence risk. Having said that, that does not mean I am suddenly turning bearish. I am just liquidating some of my holdings to make for a leaner portfolio so that my risks are well managed in this volatile and slightly backforth swinging times. I am also more cautious in identifying stocks to purchase and holding our for a clearer macroeonomic/STI development.

Volumes have been low lately and some stocks, especially the penny stocks, have been staging a retracement. For the long run or for the short run? Frankly, I do not have the answer, neither do I want to seek and gamble on it. 

This, I began to realise, is a very very fine line between confidence and over-confidence. 

Last week, in the still going uptrend, people were buying happily and everything seemed green and perfect. It was so tempting to continue to expand my portfolio and shop for stocks to buy. But my risk indicators told me that I should put a hold given the amount of cash remaining and in opened positions as well as my time horizon (I have 2 loan debts that I am seeking to finish paying by this year so certain liquidity is necessary). On Wednesday, I began calling time on the Dow's rise and suggested that it may be breaking out from its uptrend. I wasn't going to confirm the break in uptrend but I further elaborated that the risks and volatility were definitely higher than the last few weeks. But yet, on Friday, the STI improved in its performance and it still seemed that some resilience and upside was possible. Of course, this was psychologically and emotionally motivated. The biggest pitfall is the incessant reverberating call or claim in our minds that this trend is possible, this trend is possible. This trend is possible. 

Is this really possible? When I asked myself this question, I followed with another - Am I taking a chance? Once this becomes largely a probability game of chance, I am out. And it is as simple as that. Though being motivated by psychological emotions, I constantly ask myself and provide myself with the will to say "Hey, you are getting over-confident with your latest successes. Take your profits and get out."

I guess that was the best advice and questions that I had asked myself ever since the start of the rally. It is better to be sitting at the sides with reduced risks while waiting for the market to decide on its new/continued trend. No regrets still.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

More Upside to STVOSV?

STXOSV has risen an astonishing 110% since the bottom of the start of October. This is by far one of the best performing stock in the last 6 months. When I meant best, I meant returns with measured risk

Let's analyse this stock with the news in December that broke and suggested a willingness of its parent, STX, to offload this arm in order to raise funds for itself. It survived that awful call that began a minor plunge in its stock prices before recovering on some speculations that it could be taken over. 
Along these 6 months, news announcements from the company has been mainly positive, with continual orders coming in and a healthy order book. In fact, its order book has expanded greatly. Lately, its financial announcement showed a doubling in its 4th quarter net profits compared yoy.
Given the improvement in the economic landscape and its strategic position in Norway where the OSV demand has clearly been improving, STXOSV has good and strong fundamentals, tested along the way in these 6 months.

On a technical analysis perspective, its share price has been largely correlated with its news. The share price strength was clearly tested in December on news that STX would be looking to offload this lucrative unit. It has not looked back since. Its price has seen a healthy increase since October and the trendline is very well defined. On Friday, the stock just rebounded off the diagonal trendline support.
MACD is however a bit weak given its crossover with its signal line but if you are looking to trade off the support, it should not be too big a concern given MACD and its signal are still both in the positive territory. Alternatively, it could be interpreted as the stock taking a breather from its rapid rise 1 week back so do track closely and look out for the first and second green MACD bars to initiate a long.
RSI is around 70 confirming the stock's price strength and has bounced off a horizontal support at around 65.
Bullish with mid term outlook.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Euro Zone Bank Stress Test

Given the volatility of the market over the last 2-3 days, I am deciding to sit on the sidelines and watch what unfolds before deciding what to do with my money. Breaking away from technically analysing stocks/markets, I thought it will be a refreshing and useful addon to share a bank stress test calculator prepared by Reuters. Full Link Here.
By sliding those bars, you can see how much debt haircut the Euro zone PIIGS have to do in order help to avert a national/regional disaster. Plenty of food for thought and realising the implications of this debt crisis. One hole is leaking while we fix the other.

It is huge and it is still not over. Much more to do still.

Source: Reuters

Thursday, February 23, 2012

STI Mirroring Dow's Suggestions Too?

Yesterday, I was predicting a bearish reversal in the near term by looking at the negative divergence of the MACD histogram and the signal line of the Dow weekly chart. And today, STI did show some bearish strength that took over the market. Exactly what sort of bearish strength did the STI exhibit today? Should we suddenly go short after 2 months of long positions? 

Well, the answer probably lies with the STI performance today. 
  1. The biggest attention grabbing item has to be a gap between Wednesday's candlestick and today's. There is a gap of about 15 points! That is around 0.5% worth of the STI value. Furthermore, studying the 2 months candlestick patterns of the STI, everytime a black(bearish) candlestick appeared, it never appears in a negative gap, except today's. This is the first time a long black candlestick has formed totally below the previous day's candlestick with a gap in between.
  2. Downward momentum seems to be building too. Today, we witness the 2nd long black candlestick formed in consecutive days, together with 2 dojis that signify indecision. In market psychology, this is probably the stage where some realisation of a possible bearish trend starts to kick in and multiply. Once more catch on, we might soon see a real downtrend, breaking from the long uptrend we have been enjoying.
  3. MACD histogram is negative and increasing. This is the third red bar in three days. MACD and its signal are both reversing direction at the peak and pointing downwards.
  4. RSI is trending towards the 50 line pretty quickly.
  5. Volumes match the sell down today. In fact, this is the highest volume traded in this entire rally.

Telling? You judge yourself.

Source: Yahoo Finance (click here to go straight to chart)

Dow Jones is Suggesting Something?

If you have been reading this blog for the last 2-3 weeks, you would notice that every piece of news that came out was mostly positive or bullish about the market and its items. But this week's events thus far, especially Wednesday's market activity have brought me thinking hard. Is this time to get out? Is this volatility what my risk management tells me that I cannot stomach? Is this walking the tight rope and trying gambling instead of trading in clear trends?

So, I took out ChartNexus and looked properly and indepth-ly into the Dow Jones weekly chart for a better signal of what is to come. Of course, I do not think I am the first to discover a bearish divergence on the MACD that has occured for the last 2 weeks, and soon 3. This is not too healthy coupled with a indecisive candlestick and probably after tonight, a black candlestick to appear. Over the last few months, divergences in MACD indicator has been very accurate in forcasting price action that will follow. I have highlighted them in blue circles. 

Bearish? Well I guess it is easy to gamble on this and say hey, if it goes back up on some further good US/Europe economic news, being in this, riding this volatility out would have been great. On the other hand, ignoring these signs would be foolish.
You decide. At least for me, I am heading for the exits before something else finds me. I would be happier with my profits and reduced risk and exposure in this roller coaster ride soon.
Come what may, I traded healthily and with conviction.

Property Sector Play Hots Up!

As it seems, property stocks are on the rise given the highly volatile market conditions that have ensued on Wednesday's trading. They have been quite lagging in the blue chip rally last month given the impact of the stamp duties that really brought their prices way down in December. But things seem to be getting rosy for the counters and I have compiled snapshots of Capitaland, Keppeland, Ho Bee, Yanlord and Wing Tai.

Bullish. Capitaland has just broken out of a minor resistance line (of a peak in mid July '11) and is steadily on an uptrend towards 3.25 of a fib projection 100% level.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (formed by a trough 18 Feb)
Volumes match price action.

Bullish with caution. Keppeland price has been trending very rapidly towards $3.43ish, facing its first test of confidence in a period of a year. Expect some resistance from that resistance line and if it breaks, more upside is expected. For now, it does not seem like a true buy call yet.
MACD histogram has been 4 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (formed by a trough 6 Feb)
Volumes match price action.

Bullish. Ho Bee has been trending upwards significantly since mid Jan and prices have recently crossed the 200d MA line. Very well supported trend on the diagonal major support so looking very healthy as a clear trend trade.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 72 support line (formed by a trough 17 Feb)
Volumes have been increasing but not too significantly.

Bullish with caution. Yanlord has been trending upwards steadily since start Jan and prices have recently broke through a resistance line formed one plus year ago. Very clear uptrend but headwinds lie ahead from a $1.50 resistance line from a year ago as well as being supported by a fib projection of 100%.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (support has been test on 13and 17 Feb)
Volumes have been increasing but not too significantly.

Bearish. Wing Tai is seeing a crossover between the 12d EMA and the 20d SMA lines as well as a trend reversal seen after hitting a peak resistance at $1.33.
MACD histogram has been 5 days in red and negative. MACD line is trending down.
RSI just reentered the 'safety' zone which is also an indication for many traders as a short call.
Volume on Wednesday has increased to match the bearish candlestick suggesting real price moving down.

Monday, February 20, 2012

NOL Has Successfully Passed Its Test

NOL has been looking to break beyond $1.45 since last week only to meet strong resistance from the market at that levels. After all, it did seem a bit overbought and has encountered strong headwinds.

However, today NOL looked to have staged a breakout this morning before retreating to test the support for the first time. It has broken out of a ascending triangle pattern. It is still at $1.49, a very healthy price. More upside seems very possible! A little caution though given the MACD has been sloping downwards since last week and has gone under the signal line. But that should prove less significant in disrupting this further uptrend.

Fundamentally, NOL has risen 26% since the start of the year compared to counterparts Cosco and Yangzijiang that have risen 41% and 38% respectively (Source:SGX). I fully expect the value of NOL to tumble up now given the breaking of the resistance to match the maritime levels. Furthermore, the easing economic conditions will prove to be the year for shipping counters as US is expected to grow slightly, leading Europe out of the doldrums. Again, we know we are not without headwinds coming from the slowdown in China and South America emerging markets. So if your time horizon is between 0.5 to 1-1.5 years, I would suggest taking a closer look at this shipping giant based in Singapore.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Euro's Plunge is Recovering.

So is the world and its economic sentiments.

Chart obtained from Euro/SGD Rates on Yahoo Finance.

First, the news of payroll, employment and other economic data coming out of US have been positive and suggesting recovery. It has been suggested that the US will grow slightly in this year and lead Europe out of its recession.

Second, the Greek issue has been slowly resolved and expect Greece to have a second bailout by the end of this week after all the hard work from members of the EU.

Thirdly, the Euro has been gradually strengthening over the month. Looking at the chart above, it seems like a double bottom has played out and the Euro is on a recovery against the Sing dollar as has been the case against the greenback too. This is ideal as well as it shows the appetite and the confidence slowly building back into the Euro after the crash last December after reports of a suggested Greek default being on the cards.

Headwinds lie ahead of course but for those of us trading, I believe there are money making opportunities that are surfacing today. The confidence and conviction to trade given these sensible news and real data being presented are telling. But as the nag goes, do take note of your time horizon of trade and do not anticipate too long a trade. Given we are not totally out of the malaise climate yet, do not take too high a risk. High risk high returns. High risk high losses. Trade, profit and enjoy yourself. Stay sustainable this week.

Weekly Market Review and Perspectives

Week 7 of 2012.

1. STI Performance Review
This week, the STI raced to recapture the 3000 mark. Convincing? Not quite yet. We only saw a short breakout on Wednesday before a fall back below 3000 levels occured with a pretty big dark candlestick. On Friday, STI had closed 3000. 

From both TA and FA point of view, this coming week is crucial. 
First, for proponents of TA, STI's failure to breakout from 3000 is not helping many to make a decision in this seemingly overbought market. Talk to anyone and people will say that they are treading cautiously now since everything 'seems too high'. Too high is relative, at least to me - so it suggests nothing. But translate this to overall market action, it is significant as we want retail and institutional investors to come in and continue the buying pressure. So, this coming week will finally throw more light on the value investors are putting on the STI and if it can breakout successfully, the next target I am putting is 3206, using the height of difference between the low in Dec and breakout in Feb (past 2920). 
Not thinking too far, the uptrend is strongly intact on a weekly chart (I do support a breakout but at least in the next next week since STI should be taking a break this coming week) and the latest week candlestick is still suggesting strong buying pressure with sustainable volumes. RSI and MACD are trending upwards with the MACD crossing 0 for the first time since August. Another bullish indication. MACD histogram is all green for the past few weeks and this suggests momentum is still firmly with the bulls. 
Second, Greece is still on the cards for everyone. So long as its default potential is not put to bed, this market will not ease on cautiousness. We saw how a little indecision in providing the full aid to Greece on Wednesday night caused a market turmoil on Thursday so anything may happen.

2. STI Performance vs other Key Indices
Below are 2 graphs with difference starting dates (used in the computation of the % relative gain/loss). I have chosen 1 Oct and 1 Dec as reference points due to their local lows.
It is interesting to note that the Hang Seng index is a clear outperformer compared to the rest in the basket. Its rise has been nicely sloped and has on every single day after 1 Oct and 1 Dec (except 12-13Dec) reference points outperformed the STI index. This meant that if you went long on HSI and STI on 1 Oct and reviewed your portfolio any day after til date, you would have a better result with the HSI.
However, if we delved into the rise of the STI since 1 Dec, it was not a bad performer. Assuming we went long on the STI on 1 Dec and looked at it today, only doing so with the HSI and Nikkei(slightly) would yield a better result. 

3. Key Sector Performances of the STI
Looking at the performance chart of the key sector indices referenced on 1 Dec, it is clear that the maritime index has been way better than the STI. It is almost a 24% increase in the profits that would have been obtained by longing the STI on 1 Dec and reviewing it today! The next outperforming index is the Oil&Gas sector that has also traditionally been pretty strong given Singapore's fundamentals in this area. Not surprising that these 2 sectors have been leading the charge on the recovery and although the performance of the maritime sector has been way stellar, one contributing factor was the tremendous loss it suffered in late 2011. 
So comes the question of which area to look at? Well of course, this ultimately boils down to your preference, risk appetite, portfolio optimisation and objectives. There are clear outperformers in this market. Will they last the trend? Of course one day they will too become expensive and people will begin avoiding them, seeking for more undervalued ones. Then comes the next question of which undervalued one? As it seems, the real estate index is still recovering from its losses in late last year due to stamp duty legislation. This is one area to look at given key blue chips like Capitaland and Keppeland are solid in balance sheet while reits provide good dividend yield.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Dow's Rise is Healthy

Last night, Dow posted a +123 points rise, outstripping the previous day's horrific slaughter of the market. Horrific because it was the first time Dow lost more than 100 points in a day in this year. But it is back above those levels again. I decided to look at its weekly chart to have a better clue of which direction it is heading and if the uptrend is in question as its erratic behaviour over the last 2 days have made me wanted to find out more.

It is clearly showing higher highs and higher lows, plus a strong support line at 12570. The trend is going up and approaching 13000 mark but of course, the trend does seem to show a slowdown. Volumes have been steadily declining so would not suggest making any market entry at this point in time unless Friday's market is equally stellar. Still lots of potential tripping points ahead.

However, as for its rise, it does not seem to be ending its trend still. RSI and MACD are nicely trending up with RSI having strong support line.

I believe 13000 is close by. But not without hiccups.

Why Trading Requires Discipline Not Emotions

You can be a terrible fan of the bulls yesterday, but did your support waver given the market performance on Thursday? A (6 weeks) unprecedented scene of loss -34.48 points by the STI and a huge black candlestick is enouhg to scare any investor/trader and put him on his seat waiting to get out of this hugely overdue correction (if it was/is going to unfold).

But by tonight, Dow has, at current time of writing this blog post, amassed a staggering +112 points. I admit that I was, too, cautious in the whole of Thursday, contemplating a correction and liquidating but I thought most of my portfolio were doing -1% and it seemed pretty strong until the last 20minutes of STI trading when all it all went haywire and I was not monitoring the market, and so did not execute trades.

Then I went home to look at the STI for proper, clearer analysis. This was what I saw.

Assuming STI follows Dow's performance and stages a rebound tomorrow, it will become obvious that this is yet another higher low situation. As for higher high, it really depends on the market's stomach for riskier pricing to break the 3000 barrier that we have seen only weakly taken over on Wednesday.

I am still bullish about the STI and Singapore stocks in general. The market took a correction today, far bigger than that of other Asian markets also because of its stellar performance over the last week compared to the rest.

I am less worried now.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Amtek Uptrend is Put to Test

If we look at the last 4 days to Amtek's stock prices, we will realise that the prices are significantly being resisted by the 200d MA line. Very very obvious happening in this strong uptrend.

Going by the way the MACD and RSI is trending, as well as the diagonal major support line, the uptrend is not going to change any time soon. It is strong. But so is the 200d MA line. So what next? A symmetry triangle is being formed between the 200d MA and the diagonal major support. In this case, breakout can really be on both sides of the triangle, while in my opinion, it is highly possible to be on the upper side. But I do not like probabilistic scenarios nor to second guess the market.

Trade wisely and where there's a doubt, money is best kept in your pocket.

ST Eng is on a Healthy Uptrend

ST Engineering has been increasing in stock price since its bottom in Dec. I am pretty bullish about this stock given its latest run that has been extremely steady. I like anything steady, obvious and clear. This is clear.

ST Eng just cleared the 100w MA line and is really trending up with the RSI and MACD both providing high confirmation to the strong uptrend. Furthermore, ST Eng was just in the news for its Airshow deals, fueling further and future growth.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Reasons to Not Trade in an Unknown Trend

If I do not know the trend, I do not trade. I can make a fortune by predicting the direction in future but I can also lose more than a fortune betting. It is no difference from putting money to the casino.

In order to illustrate my point, let's look at SMRT shares right now. A descending triangle has formed over the last few weeks, leaving the shortists in glee. Price action was coupled with good increasing volume in the direction of the trend.
But guess what now? Volume has dipped over the last 2-3 days. There was a very very weak breakout from the pattern with prices trending above the $1.73 major support line. Bollinger bands are tightening, further fueling a possible increase in volatility in the near future. 
MACD is showing a divergence with price movement, which may indicate a rise in price to come. Moving averages are trending down strongly. Pattern was broken weakly. RSI still weak.

Would you go long or short? I hope you do not choose to flip the coin to decide its direction as the same coin flip will decide your profits.

Artivision Uptrend Strongly Intact

Shares of Artivision have been rising in price tremendously since end Dec. Its price has more than doubled in this 2 months, far outstripping the price in the June high. Note the breakout in December and the support line that has been produced. 

Very very strong uptrend again.
1. The diagonal support line is a major support now having been tested on 2 occasions on mid Jan and 2 days ago. very strong rebound off the diagonal and 20d MA, signalling a strong uptrend.
2. The MA volume line has been trending up very neatly since December and doesn't show signs of a loss in investor interest. Volume + Price action is healthy.
3. MACD Green histogram bar has appeared on 14 Feb day of trading. Of course, it may be too early to determine a bullish state given the first green histogram bar but look at the way the trend is support by the diagonal. Obvious confirmation with the green histogram.
4. RSI has turned and heading up again.

Given the relatively decoupled nature of this stock from the STI movements and shear investor activity in staking a claim in this once-penny stock, it should rise in the next couple of days. Using a fib projection on the latest rebound, expect take profit to be around $0.345 region. Do not wait for too high too given the stock's daily is still in pretty overbought regions, at least soon.

Healthy trading with clear trends minimise risks. Remember.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Swiber Breakout

Market has been pretty erratic since morning today but there has been one counter that caught my sight with a strong buy call based on technical analysis.

Based on the W figure formed since Aug to start Feb, Swiber has broken out of its downtrend at around $0.65 and has been trending quickly towards $0.75. Lately, it took a correction and has tested $0.71 support firmly since Friday and today (intraday low is at 0.71). Now the stock is at $0.75, breaking through the highest close 3 trading days earlier.
Volume is at 6million currently, probably not that ideal but also since market has been inactive the whole of today, it should be relatively unaffecting the above analysis of a strong breakout by Swiber.
Blue arrow is the expected take-profits area by measuring the height of the W and projecting it above the support/resistance line at $0.65. Top right corner is a fibonacci projection, confirming the blue arrow's height/take-profit area of 61.8% fib. Red arrow is today's breakout.
Swiber is also not overbought on the weekly and since a correction has already taken place, chances are momentum is still intact.

Very strong call by the bulls this time.

Lunch Thoughts about the STI

I awoke to the news of the Greek resolution and half expected the stock market to be in good action today. But I was wrong. A loss of investor interest still seems to be a spill over from Friday's market action. Here's the market chart last updated on Friday.

If you notice, the trend is very well supported on the diagonal support line and current STI is at 2970 points thereabouts. Very very healthy uptrend trend still. However, in the next few days we might expect more market inactivity (no, the uptrend is still intact) possibly due to profit-taking etc.
RSI seems to be trending downward, breaking trend and moving into more 'safe' region below 70. Expect it to rebound at around 55-60 ish since there's support (dotted blue).
MACD histogram is negative which is also another indication of a pullback/market inactivity. But signal and MACD still in positive region confirming the uptrend is intact.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Lesson on Price Action

It doesn't come everyday that prices are so telling that it wants to tell us a story behind the stock.

I have pulled out an example of a recent spike in price of CapitaMallsAsia. If we trace it back to 7 Feb, we notice that the stock first staged a breakout above a major resistance level. Bullish. Then on 8 Feb, a huge white candlestick appeared together with a newer high in day volume. Bullish.
The candlestick on 8 Feb was duly supported by news from Kim Eng that states CapitaMalls Asia as buy with a target price of $1.92. Then guess what? On 10 Feb after market close, CapitaMalls Asia announced a 8.1% increase in FY 2011 PATMI.

Screenshot obtained from Capitamalls Asia website.

Prices ARE telling.

If you believe in what prices are trying to say, you can make money. Of course, we do not need to go into additional details such as short term volatility and variance in price movements due to irrational investors given the stock price did take a breather on 9 and 10 Feb, presumably due to profit taking and the Greek issues respectively. But just look at how price actions paint a good enough picture for us home traders/investors without having to go through financial statements, analysis economic risks, etc etc to arrive at a healthy decision that Capitamalls Asia is doing well and it will continue to do well.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Yangzijiang Reaching Overbought Levels

Yangzijiang has been performing very well lately together with its fellow maritime counterparts given the slightly improving economic outlook coupled by the encouraging data that US is leading Europe out of its recession and problems. Last week, we saw interest in Cosco begin to take a breather as its price started to lose momentum at its peak. Given that Yangzijiang had not increased as much as Cosco in the turn of the year, it was understandable that it was still having some upside this week. However, could it be time for it to give up some momentum?

Yangzijiang on the daily.

Yangzijiang on the  weekly.
As it seems, with the Fibonacci projections, its daily stock price has reached a take profit level and probably almost time for a breather. On the weekly, the RSI indicator is trending very close to 70, a region that suggests overbought conditions even after smoothing out daily volatility.
For those vested, as it seems, it is a good time to take profit since it has risen considerably. You do not want to be finding the peaks - take your profits first. Of course, there might be further upside given the strong volume and price action on 9 Feb but stock price is fast trending to danger region.
For those who are not on the boat, you are better off elsewhere!

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Food for Thought

The STI has rebounded by almost 10% since the start of the year, a bull run that was probably overdue. As we savour the current period of market boom, it might be worthwhile to direct your attention to the STI monthly statistics on turnover of the market. 

The graph below shows value/share of each of the key sectors over a period of 3 months. 

Are these what the market is trying to tell us about price reflecting the performance, market psychology, fundamentals of each sector? Utilities has been increasing steadily in value/share transacted over the last three month. Undervalued but up and coming proposition? As expected, consumer services, financials and oil and gas are sectors with high valuations. Could this graph yield us more insights to changes in the stock market to come?

Monday, February 6, 2012

Healthy Market Exposure

Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong seem to be worth alternatives to investing in Singapore equities and I am terrible bullish about Asia growth fueling inflow of investments.

India, on the other hand, took a huge correction in 2011 but look at the slope of its recovery towards the end of 2011 and start of 2012. Tremendous! Undervalued region that is now up and coming.

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