Singapore Property Cooling Measures - Buy on Dip?

Current Market Theme:

Mass market residential property to be worst hit given the additional measures aimed to further curb speculation in this category by hot money flowing through the financial system. Measures seem most drastic in the 7th round of property cooling but as with all past measures, it has shown that the government's steps have been well balanced and aimed to prevent a sudden collapse in prices in the near future should monetary easing start to reduce worldwide.

Going by history, as long as hot money is kept circulating in the global financial system (highly likely given the tepid growth experienced in US and Europe), property counters will still enjoy upside albeit less pronounced in the near future. Effects of measures present a buying opportunity to accumulate property counters.

[Previous post: Weekly Update - NOL, Yangzijiang, Swiber]

1. Capitaland

• Gap down on Monday, first day of the week, declining to a day low of  $3.61 before returning to $3.73.
• MACD - positive divergence declining and MACD turned downwards for the first time in 6 months.
• RSI (25w) - hit 70% to face resistance.
• Would be buyers at ~$3.45 after testing $3.42 key support to catch the property momentum.

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2. Keppeland

• Faced key resistance at $4.38 last week. Gaped down opening today at $3.97 to close at same price.
• MACD - MACD turning downwards after peaking at highest levels in 2 years.
• RSI (25w) - hit 70% to face resistance.
• Prices are currently sandwiched in the middle of nowhere between key support and resistances. Would be buyers at ~$3.6 when prices cool down further as that coincides with the 20w average.

3. Ho Bee

• Big dip on first day of the week, erasing almost 6.5% off its share prices. Prices seem firmly support at $1.8 levels.
• MACD - MACD turning downwards with 3 weeks of declining positive divergence.
• RSI (25w) - Overbought RSI finally heading down for some cooling.
• Expect to buy at ~$1.8. Possible to wait for $1.8 resistance to be tested before entering. 

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4. Wing Tai

• Big dip on first day of the week, erasing almost 10% off its share prices.
• MACD - MACD turning downwards after weeks of low positive divergence.
• RSI (25w) - Overbought RSI finally heading down for some cooling.
• Expect to buy at ~$1.7. Possible to wait for $1.7 resistance to be tested before entering. 

Property Sector Play Hots Up!

As it seems, property stocks are on the rise given the highly volatile market conditions that have ensued on Wednesday's trading. They have been quite lagging in the blue chip rally last month given the impact of the stamp duties that really brought their prices way down in December. But things seem to be getting rosy for the counters and I have compiled snapshots of Capitaland, Keppeland, Ho Bee, Yanlord and Wing Tai.



Bullish. Capitaland has just broken out of a minor resistance line (of a peak in mid July '11) and is steadily on an uptrend towards 3.25 of a fib projection 100% level.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (formed by a trough 18 Feb)
Volumes match price action.

Bullish with caution. Keppeland price has been trending very rapidly towards $3.43ish, facing its first test of confidence in a period of a year. Expect some resistance from that resistance line and if it breaks, more upside is expected. For now, it does not seem like a true buy call yet.

MACD histogram has been 4 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.

RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (formed by a trough 6 Feb)

Volumes match price action.

Bullish. Ho Bee has been trending upwards significantly since mid Jan and prices have recently crossed the 200d MA line. Very well supported trend on the diagonal major support so looking very healthy as a clear trend trade.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 72 support line (formed by a trough 17 Feb)
Volumes have been increasing but not too significantly.






Bullish with caution. Yanlord has been trending upwards steadily since start Jan and prices have recently broke through a resistance line formed one plus year ago. Very clear uptrend but headwinds lie ahead from a $1.50 resistance line from a year ago as well as being supported by a fib projection of 100%.
MACD histogram has been 3 days in green and positive. MACD line is trending up.
RSI is in overbought territory but well supported by the 70 support line (support has been test on 13and 17 Feb)
Volumes have been increasing but not too significantly.

Bearish. Wing Tai is seeing a crossover between the 12d EMA and the 20d SMA lines as well as a trend reversal seen after hitting a peak resistance at $1.33.
MACD histogram has been 5 days in red and negative. MACD line is trending down.
RSI just reentered the 'safety' zone which is also an indication for many traders as a short call.
Volume on Wednesday has increased to match the bearish candlestick suggesting real price moving down.