Sunday, January 13, 2013

Weekly Update - NOL, Yangzijiang, Swiber

Current Market Theme:
Favour oil & gas counters with solid order books for the current market recovery. Expect more new deals in the pipeline given the lifting outlook with emerging economies such as Latin America where oil exploration has always been key.
Also favour shipping companies given recent China's recovery and improved export data. Reports suggest that China may overtake US in economic leadership by 2014 so good news in China is good news for world trade. Europe and US are in a period of trade stagnation but no major shocks to be expected.

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1. Neptune Orient Lines (Shipping)
  • Breakout in this week with high volume sending stock to a price of $1.31.
  • MACD - positive divergence and trending into the positive
  • RSI (25w) - crossed 50% and headed for 70%
  • Price Target - $1.44 (~11% from current levels) over the next 3-4 weeks.

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2. Yangzijiang (Shipping and Oil & Gas)
The market has been viewing company's decision to enter into the Oil & Gas competition favourably. Bagging its first deal at a much lower revenue (and possibly profit margin) than a similar rig done by Keppel Corp, this is a significant milestone for the company and yet it speaks volumes about the intense competition and journey ahead. Kudos nonetheless to the management for diverting underutilised resources away from ship building to rig building.

  • Breakout in this week with high volume sending stock to a price of $1.115.
  • MACD - positive divergence and trending into the positive
  • RSI (25w) - crossed 50% and headed for 70%
  • Price Target - $1.32 (~19% from current levels) over the next 4 weeks.

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3. Swiber (Oil & Gas)

  • Continuation of upward trend with increased trading volume this week.
  • MACD - positive divergence and trending in the positive
  • RSI (25w) - crossed 50% and headed for 70%
  • Price Target - $0.71 (~8% from current levels) over the next 2 weeks.


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