Monday, July 2, 2012

More Green for STI In Week Ahead?

News have been less seldom so rosy lately especially over weekends when more depressing Europe revelations come about. But this weekend has been really quite a turn around isn't it?
  • Ending-week Friday rally to close a really roller-coaster-like ride since year start with most, if not all, indices up YTD.
  • Europe is finally showing some urgency and collective will to do something about their mess. 
  • Chicago PMI up to 52.9 from 52.7 outperforming estimates of 52.5. Data was released on 29 June Friday.
  • China June PMI data, released on 1 July Sunday, stands at an official 50.2, higher than an estimated 49.8, though lower than 50.4 in May. 
  • South Korean trade surplus surprised all analysts coming in at $4.96billion for June, the highest surplus since 21 months ago.
  • Crude oil prices are up a whopping 9.2% on Friday, rallying back to $84.84 on the NY Mercantile Exchange.

Outlook - Accumulate. All technical indicators are pointing further upside in the coming week(s). After 1 week of slugfest between the bears and the bulls, it is clear who won this week around. However, before getting too euphoric, pay attention to one key resistance that still lies with the 2920 level. It is provided by a major resistance line and validated by the 100d MA line. Expect some rocky days as the STI challenges that level. Once cleared, it could spell another buying spree that we had seen in year start.
  • MACD - Trending upwards and crossed 0. Increasing upward momentum is still building up.
  • RSI (25d) - Just crossed the 50% level giving more validation of the strength of this run and the potential for more upside.
  • 20d MA - the 20d MA is heading upwards.
  • 55d MA - the 55d MA was a short-lived resistance where prices retreated in 18-19 June coming close to that level. Broke it on Friday's close. Possible turn of role into a support line.
  • Volume - trending up in the last 3 trading days signifying very good buyer (prices are increasing so buyers>sellers) sentiments and participation.

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