Monday, June 18, 2012

Pro-Bailout Groups Give Hope to the EU and Markets

As of 3am Singapore time, exit polls have shown that pro-bailout groups of the New Democracy and Pasok political groups will be able to form a majority coalition ruling government, sending waves of stabilisation, possibly, ahead of further renegotiation of talks.

There are several possible scenarios by tomorrow morning with the Japanese market first to open. Note that the Japanese finance ministry had adopted a wait-and-see policy before tweaking fiscal or monetary policy to further tackle the global slowdown emanating from Europe.

  1. Pro-bailout parties win and agree to form the majority
  2. Pro-bailout parties win but fail to agree on forming a coalition party.
  3. Similar to the above, failure to form a majority.
  4. Syriza gains control and Greece reneges on their obligations over the last 2 bailouts.
The first 2 are looking most possible at current time and whatever the case, the short term impact would most likely be to send markets around the world on another bull day. Bull week/rally ahead, it is still questionable given the need for real structural improvements that are really needed as a catalyst for another strong market rally. Let's not forget that Spain has yet to report their audited liquidity required. Several other nations such as Italy are also not out of the woods yet. They are merely obscured in news dedicated to Spain and Greece lately.

Nonetheless once the haze over the political situation in Greece lessens up over the next few days, there will definitely be a clearer market picture and confidence. With central banks showing readiness to act decisively this time to avoid a repeat of any financial crisis, the world is definitely in a much better situation to react. And as it really seems, it is not that bad after all.

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