Friday, June 29, 2012

End of the Road for Genting SP?

Genting SP used to be such a popular and hot stock with a wonderful tale of its rise from 40-50cents to a $2 stock in its hayday in 2008. Now its daily turnover value is a far cry from the usual top volume placeholder it used to boast. In fact, this is surprising. Tourism in Singapore has been doing so strongly since the inauguration of the controversial twin casinos and in fact despite all the economic downturn, tourism receipts have not seen a decrease. The casinos are definitely raking in big money in this operating period but why has Genting SP price shed so much over the last 3 months? And in particular, has investor confidence been that badly startled by its unannounced stake in Echo that may lead to bloodshed with rival Parker in Australia? Will there be a win win situation?

Outlook - Strong Sell. All technical indicators are pointing to further downside bearish situation in contrary to mere coffeeshop talk that the stock has been battered down so badly that it presents a very good valuation. Valuation-wise, I believe in the proposition that Genting has to offer and with its perpetual bond cash inflow, it definitely will come up with some good investor-attractive ideas to further grow the business - urgently, as OCBC research puts it given the time-importance emanating from the perpetual bonds payback interest. Nonetheless, this proposition is clearly not validated by the market (in JP Morgan's investment principle) at least for this period. 
  • MACD - Just crossed the smoothed 9d signal line and further downwards headed. Downwards momentum is clearly on the increase now, noting that momentum has already firmly been in the negative over the last 4-5 weeks.
  • RSI (25d) - Heading towards the 30% critical value with somemore leeway. More downside to be expected. Do note however, that over a 2 years period, the stock has never traded far below 30% RSI so possible TP price would come when RSI ventures into that area.
  • 20d MA - the 20d MA is firmly headed downwards.
  • Major Support - has been broken today (29 June) with a black candlestick.
  • Volume - A surge in volume occurred today (29 June) that accompanied a clear break in the critical $1.41 support.

Daily chart with a longer time horizon detailing the $1.41 support level and a more macroscopic and time-smoothed stock price pattern.

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